trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 42% | 4% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.3% | 4% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -18.8% | 4% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -26.7% | 4% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -33.9% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 04 | $210 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | May 04 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | May 04 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Apr 13 | $103 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 13 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 13 | $400 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 09 | $108 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 30 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Jan 27 | $108 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? | Dec 23 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 25 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 10 | $108 | $0 | -0% |
| Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | Oct 29 | $108 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend | Aug 21 | $104 | $0 | +0% |
| Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? | May 17 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? | May 17 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Memphis vs. West Virginia | Jan 25 | $2 | +$1 | +47% |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? | Jan 25 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? | Dec 16 | $727 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Harris win Vermont by 32+ points? | Dec 08 | $12 | −$9 | -73% |
| Lauren Chen subpoenaed in September? | Nov 01 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will two members of The Squad lose their primaries? | Sep 16 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| US congress stock trading ban by August 31? | Sep 16 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Aug 11 | $354 | −$7 | -2% |