Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f9f…c5e3 politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-0%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$16
politics 34% −$15
sports 13% −$81
economics 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -3.8% -12.9% 7% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 4% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage133d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $342 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $186 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $194 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $418 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $373 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $219 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $182 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $164 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $372 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $191 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $210 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $395 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $234 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $243 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $480 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $435 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $228 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 31h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 35h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 36h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 42h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 46h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $186 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $186 26d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 30d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $194 30d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $194 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 30d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $225 31d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $225 31d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 31d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 33d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 34d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 430 history records