Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f9d…fbdc other 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$889 (+1%) realized +$889 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$806per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$13
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$54
other 37% +$620
sports 10% +$315
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -9.4% -18.0% 9% 2% -10.4%
all 128 +4.1% -5.8% 22% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 12% -8.8%
10% -14.8% 12% -17.5%
15% -23.0% 12% -25.5%
20% -30.6% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,119) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$9 · ×6.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$889
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage127d
Avg bet$806
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $531 $532 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $431 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $431 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $216 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $364 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,789 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $391 +$1 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $395 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,578 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $414 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $1,764 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $7,005 −$8 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $908 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,698 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $875 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,406 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,805 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $795 +$1 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $431 23m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $431 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $431 6h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $431 7h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $430 47h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $431 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $431 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $432 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $531 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $747 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $748 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $364 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $364 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $738 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $739 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $743 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $745 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $644 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $645 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $432 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $432 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $652 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $654 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $704 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $705 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $557 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $558 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $552 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.70 · official $531.70 (match) · 425 history records