trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 27 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 63% | 7% | -4.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 7% | -4.3% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 7% | -13.5% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 4% | -21.8% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 4% | -29.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 03 | $63 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 31 | $36 | +$1 | +3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 30 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $31 | −$1 | -4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 28 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | May 07 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 02 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? | Apr 01 | $15 | +$24 | +155% |
| Will the US sanction Ukraine before April? | Apr 01 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Mar 29 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21? | Mar 23 | $14 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? | Mar 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump post 110-119 times on Truth March 7-14? | Mar 11 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump post 140-149 times on Truth March 7-14? | Mar 10 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 09 | $15 | $0 | -0% |