Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f98…412f
sports · 10 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$17 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage167d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 3 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-12%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? No 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Kraken vs. Rangers Jan 18 $1 +$1 +122%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$16
other 49% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 16h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 33h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 33h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 14d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 143d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 143d
Kraken vs. Rangers BUY Kraken 45¢ $1 151d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 15¢ $1 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +41.7% +28.2% 50% 50% +27.5%
≤30d 5 +13.3% +2.5% 40% 40% -44.0%
≤90d 5 +13.3% +2.5% 40% 40% -44.0%
all 7 +12.7% +2.0% 43% 43% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 43% -41.6%
10% -7.8% 43% -47.2%
15% -16.7% 43% -52.3%
20% -24.9% 43% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.54 · official $35.54 (match) · 16 history records