Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f97…def8 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-19%) realized −$120 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$113
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$86
sports 29% +$10
other 27% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -88.6% -89.7% 0% 0% -82.4%
≤30d 44 -30.2% -36.9% 18% 16% -35.0%
≤90d 44 -30.2% -36.9% 18% 16% -35.0%
all 44 -30.2% -36.9% 18% 16% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 16% -35.0%
10% -42.9% 16% -41.3%
15% -48.4% 16% -46.9%
20% -53.5% 16% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage12d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -37%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$8 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$14 +264%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$20 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$2 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$30 +483%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 Jun 14 $16 +$37 +228%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 $0 -7%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-2 BUY 31¢ $26 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end BUY 2¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $0 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $8 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 8d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 7¢ $10 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 9d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will France win BUY 20¢ $20 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.65 · official $71.65 · 99 history records