Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f97…4059 sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (193 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,854 (+1%) realized +$5,854 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate54%57W / 48L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,346per market
Trades / day193.5pace
Fees−$11,678est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$4,830
world 2% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (193 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +268.5% +233.4% 32% 19% -20.7%
≤30d 105 +77.6% +60.7% 54% 16% -10.0%
≤90d 105 +77.6% +60.7% 54% 16% -10.0%
all 105 +77.6% +60.7% 54% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +60.7% 16% -10.0%
10% +45.3% 13% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here +31.3% 13% -26.4%
20% +18.4% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$7,745) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +144% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$405 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,854
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses57 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$11,678
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 83
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$6,346
Trades / day193.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 29 $64 −$358 -562%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 29 $378 −$378 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $0 −$428 -603734%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $1 +$114 +19797%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 29 $954 −$886 -93%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 29 $269 −$269 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $0 +$297 +789524%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $314 −$275 -88%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $233 −$613 -263%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 29 $529 −$529 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $217 −$211 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $0 +$148 +127477%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 29 $870 −$870 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $2,950 −$3,114 -106%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 29 $0 −$285 -871243%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 29 $0 +$42 +132519%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $604 −$964 -160%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $820 −$943 -115%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $0 +$77 +127358%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 29 $451 −$451 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 29 $209 −$209 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $15,686 +$109 +1%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $8,551 −$1,234 -14%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $1,341 +$45 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $7,484 −$161 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $19,177 +$416 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $1,623 −$5 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $9,812 +$60 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $4,135 −$1 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $104 +$13 +12%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $788 −$788 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $31,753 +$45 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5,612 −$41 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2,847 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,891 +$132 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $12,666 +$145 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $4,801 +$582 +12%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $5,240 +$654 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,441 +$1 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $295 −$295 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $18,734 −$125 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11,108 +$137 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $676 −$675 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,700 +$100 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $895 +$701 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20,405 +$186 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $440 −$440 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $2,867 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $16 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $28 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $50 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $7 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $16 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $112 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $5 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $3,237 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $668 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $15 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $143 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $5 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $5 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $100 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $100 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $30 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 76¢ $200 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $3 5m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $77 9m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $385 9m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $12 18m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $4 18m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $281 19m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $312 19m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $355 19m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $255 20m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $355 21m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $1,547 21m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $301 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records