Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3f96…2d04 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$135 (-17%) realized +$19 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$240
other 14% +$166
crypto 4% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 67% +11.5%
≤30d 15 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 67% +11.5%
≤90d 15 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 67% +11.5%
all 15 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 67% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.0% 67% +11.5%
10% +19.4% 60% +0.8%
15% +7.8% 40% -8.9%
20% -2.7% 27% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$36 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 58¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 25¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $54 +$24 +46%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $31 +$47 +155%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $21 +$141 +689%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$24 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $57 +$15 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $69 +$16 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $57 +$12 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $19 +$13 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 28¢ $5 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $54 15h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $4 18h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $15 20h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $20 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 44¢ $36 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $38 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $31 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $28 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 12¢ $21 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $19 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $72 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $57 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $86 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $19 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $50 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $70 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $32 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $33 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $25 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $25 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 37 history records