trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $68 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $92 | −$1 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $44 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $11 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $89 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Jul 01 | $22 | −$9 | -43% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Apr 10 | $0 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | Apr 08 | $22 | $0 | -1% |
| Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Apr 07 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 05 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Left be part of the next German government? | Apr 03 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 02 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 02 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 12% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 11% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 11% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 19 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 11% | 0% | -11.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 0% | -11.7% |
| 10% | -21.3% | 0% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -28.9% | 0% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -35.0% |