Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f8e…1c58 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (223 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-3%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day223.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (223 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 38% -10.1%
≤30d 40 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 38% -10.1%
≤90d 40 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 38% -10.1%
all 40 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 38% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover223.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 38% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 32% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 32% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 32% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$40 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day223.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $124 +$156 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$112 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$7 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $121 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$10 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$19 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$77 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$73 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$65 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $141 +$174 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$139 +390%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $62 −$62 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$28 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$19 +324%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $87 −$87 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$25 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$85 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $22 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $280 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $8 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $12 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records