Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f8c…4db8 politics 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$693 (+0%) realized +$699 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,610per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$31
14 days−$251
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,231
politics 42% −$114
culture 4% −$12
economics 3% −$7
sports 3% −$478
world 2% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 49 -12.2% -20.5% 4% 2% -10.0%
≤90d 125 -7.6% -16.4% 5% 3% -9.3%
all 125 -7.6% -16.4% 5% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 3% -9.3%
10% -24.4% 3% -17.9%
15% -31.7% 3% -25.9%
20% -38.4% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,103) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$7 · ×34.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$699
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,610
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $51 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,970 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,103 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $8,505 −$10 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,094 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,629 −$4 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $2,342 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,819 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,289 −$3 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $550 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $664 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,026 −$5 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $571 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,857 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,224 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $347 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $3,765 −$5 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,174 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,226 −$6 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $3,587 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $2,544 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $2,437 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $57 +$62 +109%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $665 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $4,821 −$6 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,720 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,717 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $447 18m
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $447 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $418 17h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $419 19h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $558 19h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $559 22h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $554 22h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $555 26h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $513 42h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $514 45h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $429 45h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $429 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $438 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $438 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $409 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $410 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $628 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $150 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $629 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $537 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $538 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $674 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $675 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $579 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $580 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $563 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 8d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $750 8d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $751 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $750 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.27 · official $229.27 (match) · 436 history records