Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f8b…25b7 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%48W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day148.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$538
sports 8% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -8.2% -17.0% 63% 34% -16.3%
≤30d 76 -8.2% -17.0% 63% 34% -16.3%
≤90d 76 -8.2% -17.0% 63% 34% -16.3%
all 76 -8.2% -17.0% 63% 34% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 34% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 16% -24.3%
15% -32.2% 9% -31.6%
20% -38.8% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$39 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses48 / 28
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage2d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day148.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 92¢ 90¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$68 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$46 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $127 +$22 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $66 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $125 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $171 −$33 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $137 −$100 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $355 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $126 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $178 −$97 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $143 +$46 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $125 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $154 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $251 +$50 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $107 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$10 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $32 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $43 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $83 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $63 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $62 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $66 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $110 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $125 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $131 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $69 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.37 · official $98.37 (match) · 293 history records