Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f88…ac84 weather 380 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (579 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$258 (+0%) realized +$250 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%292W / 6L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day579.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,042
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (579 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 2% -8.0%
≤30d 298 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 2% -8.0%
≤90d 298 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 2% -8.0%
all 298 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover579.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 2% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 2% -16.8%
15% -22.1% 1% -24.9%
20% -29.7% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×20.34 per $1 lost it wins $20.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$9,098
Realized+$250
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses292 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions82
Markets (closed)298 / 380
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$195
Trades / day579.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $366 $367 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $352 $353 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $340 $340 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $317 $318 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $309 $309 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $294 $295 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $293 $294 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $286 $286 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $202 $203 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $193 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $184 $184 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $174 $175 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $161 $161 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 36°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $147 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 16? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 14 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June Jun 15 $655 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on June 14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1,904 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 15 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $503 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $503 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $261 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $648 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $245 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $363 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $435 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $448 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $141 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $547 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $454 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 1m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 1m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 2m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $18 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $12 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $27 17m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $11 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $26 17m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,097.91 · official $9,096.68 (match) · 3500 history records