Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f86…7463
crypto · 25 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 4 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Yes 60¢ 94¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$15 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$10
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.2% -17.0% 48% 43% -19.2%
≤30d 21 -8.2% -17.0% 48% 43% -19.2%
≤90d 21 -8.2% -17.0% 48% 43% -19.2%
all 21 -8.2% -17.0% 48% 43% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 43% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 33% -27.0%
15% -32.2% 24% -34.0%
20% -38.8% 19% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.31 · official $49.31 (match) · 50 history records