Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f85…42b2
crypto · 493 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$184 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$113 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses246 / 243
Open positions4
Markets (closed)489 / 493
History coverage242d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 489 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 52¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$98
finance 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -2.9% -12.1% 56% 46% -14.2%
≤30d 143 -2.9% -12.1% 56% 46% -14.2%
≤90d 401 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 49% -12.6%
all 489 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 47% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -11.8%
10% -21.0% 45% -20.2%
15% -28.6% 43% -28.0%
20% -35.6% 40% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.38 · official $3.97 (match) · 904 history records