Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3F 0x3f83…0e8d sports 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,649 (+5%) realized +$1,712 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%117W / 145L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$262
7 days−$813
14 days−$510
30 days−$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% +$1,015
other 21% +$34
sports 11% +$554
world 0% −$18
crypto 0% −$7
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -66.0% -69.2% 20% 20% -48.6%
≤30d 93 -18.5% -26.3% 32% 30% -20.4%
≤90d 184 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 33% -5.7%
all 262 +10.3% -0.2% 45% 34% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 34% -5.4%
10% -9.8% 29% -14.5%
15% -18.5% 25% -22.7%
20% -26.5% 22% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$19 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$826
Realized+$1,712
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses117 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions5
Markets (closed)262 / 267
History coverage148d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 74¢ $500 $440 −$60 (-12%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 68¢ 68¢ $348 $348 −$0 (-0%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 76¢ 74¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 +$10 +52%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $17 +$10 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $449 +$158 +35%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 +$13 +26%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $39 +$51 +129%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $50 +$19 +38%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$34 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 +$11 +52%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $45 −$44 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $23 +$17 +70%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $76 −$72 -96%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 23 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $21 −$11 -51%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $52 +$43 +83%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$42 +208%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $16 +$10 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 +$26 +733%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$25 +163%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $46 +$47 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals SELL No 75¢ $7 15m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $178 1h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $0 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $19 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $39 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 72¢ $12 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $67 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $17 7h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $30 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $50 7h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 8h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $146 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $2 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $10 14h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $383 18h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $50 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $825.94 · official $825.94 (match) · 1521 history records