Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f82…24bf crypto 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,063 (+37%) realized +$9,107 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%298W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day104.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +10.7% +0.1% 61% 61% +1.5%
≤30d 574 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 52% -18.3%
≤90d 574 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 52% -18.3%
all 574 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 52% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 52% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 52% -26.1%
15% -30.0% 52% -33.2%
20% -36.9% 52% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$45 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,107
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses298 / 276
Open positions1
Markets (closed)574 / 575
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day104.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$44 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$42 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$44 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$23 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$23 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$22 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$24 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$23 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$23 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$23 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$24 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$24 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 3500 history records