Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f81…707e
crypto · 383 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$833 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$831 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized−$831
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses154 / 223
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)377 / 383
History coverage106d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 377 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,622
7 days−$1,545
14 days−$1,578
30 days−$1,686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 54¢ 52¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $85 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +156%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$19 -45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $306 +$9 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $64 −$7 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $208 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$19 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$12 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$14 +139%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 10 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $18 +$3 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $127 +$5 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $30 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $58 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $94 +$42 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $91 +$85 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $114 +$60 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $57 +$37 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $115 +$53 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $58 −$55 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% −$313
world 30% −$396
other 3% −$208
sports 1% +$71
politics 1% −$3
tech 0% +$12
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $40 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 81¢ $83 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $43 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $84 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $53 14h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $20 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 29h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 36h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 33¢ $21 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 37h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 43h
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 5¢ $6 44h
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 44h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL No 99¢ $181 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -5.8% -14.8% 47% 42% -32.8%
≤30d 121 -9.1% -17.8% 45% 40% -32.6%
≤90d 309 -2.9% -12.2% 40% 37% -14.7%
all 377 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 37% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 37% -14.3%
10% -19.1% 32% -22.5%
15% -26.9% 28% -30.0%
20% -34.1% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.96 · official $156.96 (match) · 968 history records