Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f7f…cc9b other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+5%) realized +$108 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$73
politics 19% −$20
sports 15% −$7
crypto 10% +$26
weather 5% +$15
finance 4% −$7
world 3% +$4
tech 1% −$7
culture 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 36% -4.7%
≤30d 55 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 36% -4.7%
≤90d 55 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 36% -4.7%
all 55 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 36% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 36% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 20% -13.8%
15% -27.0% 15% -22.1%
20% -34.1% 11% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)55 / 73
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? No 75¢ 74¢ $80 $79 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? No 54¢ 55¢ $66 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 69¢ 68¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 3? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $29 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance England 91¢ 88¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 29? Up 96¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: France (-3.5) France 17¢ 16¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Argentina to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Norway 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? Yes $18 $1 −$17 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $60 +$17 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $52 −$17 -32%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $9 −$8 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $12 +$2 +18%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 29 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 29 $18 +$19 +107%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 28 $20 −$6 -31%
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? Jun 28 $17 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$6 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $15 +$6 +44%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $34 +$5 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$10 +45%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 28 $12 +$1 +11%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $43 +$30 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $43 +$42 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$6 +29%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 28 $16 −$5 -31%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $18 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$12 +86%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $17 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $3 −$1 -34%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $22 −$2 -8%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 28 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $4 +$3 +73%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 28 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$3 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl Jun 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $116 −$9 -8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 28 $14 −$4 -27%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 28 $25 +$1 +2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $71 −$1 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $146 −$5 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $55 −$4 -6%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 28 $14 +$3 +20%
Argentina to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 28 $7 +$1 +16%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $7 −$3 -42%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 28 $24 +$13 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $8 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $11 +$3 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 28 $9 −$3 -35%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 57¢ $78 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 55¢ $28 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 96¢ $13 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 57¢ $36 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 14¢ $0 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 14¢ $1 2h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 8h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 83¢ $9 9h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 9h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $33 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? BUY Yes $1 9h
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Team Liquid 38¢ $3 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 66¢ $19 19h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 41¢ $14 19h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 75¢ $18 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 53¢ $18 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $18 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 3? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 20h
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 20h
Argentina to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 20h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 75¢ $21 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 53¢ $21 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $14 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.34 · official $436.34 (match) · 229 history records