Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3F 0x3f7d…8b3e crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%75W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$581
14 days+$581
30 days+$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$325
sports 39% +$513
other 10% +$68
culture 0% −$14
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.0% -14.0% 50% 44% +1.0%
≤30d 18 -5.0% -14.0% 50% 44% +1.0%
≤90d 68 -0.6% -10.1% 68% 51% -5.6%
all 113 -5.5% -14.5% 66% 50% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -7.2%
10% -22.7% 39% -16.1%
15% -30.2% 25% -24.2%
20% -37.0% 19% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$57 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses75 / 38
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage95d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 +$6 +51%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $234 +$240 +103%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $256 −$22 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 +$93 +57%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $639 −$23 -4%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $882 −$746 -85%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 −$7 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $990 +$958 +97%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $286 −$285 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $88 +$52 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $657 +$566 +86%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 23 $89 −$43 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 21 $361 −$361 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 21 $371 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 21 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $365 +$38 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 20 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 20 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 20 $328 +$45 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 20 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $231 +$94 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 19 $227 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 19 $225 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 19 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 29¢ $32 22m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 29m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 42m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 43m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $474 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $234 2h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 68¢ $234 2h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $256 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $163 5h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 80¢ $131 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $131 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $136 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 8¢ $136 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $196 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $195 16h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $483 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $485 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 17h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $101 29h
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 29h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,948 33h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $286 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $990 39h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $88 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $656 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records