Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f7c…4eef crypto 463 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (273 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$349 (+8%) realized +$354 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%119W / 452L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day273.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$619
7 days−$695
14 days−$1,422
30 days−$1,422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$771
other 13% −$63
sports 12% +$112
politics 1% −$24
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (273 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 304 -29.4% -36.1% 21% 20% -49.7%
≤30d 571 -28.8% -35.6% 21% 19% -42.6%
≤90d 571 -28.8% -35.6% 21% 19% -42.6%
all 571 -28.8% -35.6% 21% 19% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover273.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.6% 19% -42.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.7% 18% -48.1%
15% -47.4% 17% -53.1%
20% -52.5% 16% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$354
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses119 / 452
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions16
Markets (closed)571 / 463
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day273.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 100¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+733%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 100¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+284%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 100¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+284%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 27¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-88%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 457 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CA Unión win on 2026-05-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $0 +$14 +17725%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a dr Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 12m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 13m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 46m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 47m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 47m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $2 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 23¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.36 · official $274.63 (match) · 3500 history records