Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f7a…0b7b sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$252 (+0%) realized +$231 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%23W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,669per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5,740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$261
14 days+$262
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$198
other 24% +$58
tech 1% +$27
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 23 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$5,740
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses23 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage56d
Avg bet$2,669
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 100¢ 100¢ $5,353 $5,347 −$6 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $366 $393 +$27 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $5,302 +$37 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $5,258 +$34 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,439 +$17 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,990 +$10 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $5,572 +$28 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $5,567 +$33 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $4,447 +$13 +0%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 21 $1,774 +$7 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $509 +$1 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $5,541 +$18 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $1,526 +$3 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $499 +$1 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $3,298 +$12 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $498 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,579 +$21 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $2,252 +$8 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $194 +$6 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $525 +$1 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $2,992 +$8 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $1,980 7m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $186 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $996 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $16 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $1,976 10m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $199 10m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $126 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $5 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $168 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $498 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $498 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $496 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $496 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $446 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $50 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $446 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $2,025 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $50 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $691 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $105 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $124 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $993 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $29 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $696 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $696 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $1,925 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,452 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $672 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,740.23 · official $5,740.23 (match) · 187 history records