Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f7a…0f82 sports 832 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,072 (-2%) realized −$1,077 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%352W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$1,036est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,179
7 days+$518
14 days−$169
30 days−$1,808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$858
other 7% −$1,080
world 0% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 825 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 825 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 42% -11.9%
all 825 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 42% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 42% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 41% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 41% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 40% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$73 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$745
Realized−$1,077
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses352 / 473
Est. fees paid−$1,036
Open positions7
Markets (closed)825 / 832
History coverage27d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 56¢ $220 $224 +$4 (+2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 52¢ 54¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Under 44¢ 44¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Cash/Tracy 44¢ 42¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Atlanta Dream 50¢ 50¢ $88 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 46¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 36¢ 36¢ $44 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 425 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $171 +$154 +90%
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair Jun 17 $114 +$84 +73%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $139 +$83 +60%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $142 +$92 +65%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $93 +$107 +114%
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova Jun 17 $140 +$94 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $137 +$104 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $103 +$96 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $131 −$129 -98%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $133 +$101 +76%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $54 +$176 +325%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $144 +$106 +73%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 16 $117 −$116 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Miriana Tona vs Marta Lombardini Jun 16 $116 +$82 +70%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $89 +$146 +165%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $117 +$82 +70%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $167 +$133 +79%
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta Jun 16 $117 −$116 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $81 −$80 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $58 −$57 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $109 −$107 -98%
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $79 −$78 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Zongyu Li vs Hanna Chang Jun 16 $117 −$116 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $132 −$130 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $113 −$111 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $171 +$131 +77%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $74 +$176 +238%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $146 −$144 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $88 +$123 +140%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $124 −$122 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $121 +$115 +94%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $130 −$128 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $104 +$123 +119%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $188 +$162 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $114 −$112 -98%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $110 +$120 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $90 −$89 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $158 +$142 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $186 +$136 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 14 $159 −$157 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $99 +$100 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $81 +$99 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $223 48m
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 50¢ $89 1h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 44¢ $95 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $105 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $45 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $111 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $171 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $93 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $131 40h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 42h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 62¢ $139 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $43 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $94 44h
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair BUY Laura Mair 57¢ $114 44h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 55¢ $117 44h
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta BUY Lucie Urbanova 61¢ $117 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $81 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $58 2d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 57¢ $144 2d
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell BUY Li 44¢ $109 2d
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari BUY Polina Kuharenko 40¢ $77 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $79 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $98 2d
ITF San Gregorio: Miriana Tona vs Marta Lombardini BUY Marta Lombardini 58¢ $116 2d
ITF Zhengzhou: Zongyu Li vs Hanna Chang BUY Zongyu Li 58¢ $117 2d
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova BUY Kristiana Sidorova 59¢ $140 2d
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Yufei Ren 60¢ $142 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $132 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 23¢ $54 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $113 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.71 · official $744.71 (match) · 1383 history records