Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f79…9290 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,691 (-11%) realized −$1,179 · open −$512
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$2,520
other 19% +$502
world 4% −$238
crypto 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 32% -20.5%
≤30d 47 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 32% -20.5%
≤90d 47 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 32% -20.5%
all 47 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 32% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 32% -20.5%
10% -35.4% 32% -28.1%
15% -41.6% 32% -35.1%
20% -47.4% 23% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$507) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$233 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized−$1,179
Unrealized−$512
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 20¢ $1,000 $488 −$512 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$118 -23%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $708 −$700 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$66 -64%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $72 −$68 -94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 +$267 +88%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 +$598 +234%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $711 −$700 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $909 +$421 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $406 +$378 +93%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $812 +$725 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $814 −$800 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$57 -55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $760 −$750 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $660 −$650 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $646 +$243 +38%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $164 −$163 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $637 +$385 +60%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $51 +$299 +583%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $426 +$242 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $606 +$263 +43%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$8 -16%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $143 +$207 +145%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $570 +$762 +134%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$433 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $143 +$222 +156%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $51 −$3 -5%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $286 −$281 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $428 −$422 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$209 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $1,018 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $389 18h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $72 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $708 19h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $36 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 21h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $507 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $509 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $571 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $853 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $255 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $304 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $711 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,329 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $784 26h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 28h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $406 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $909 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,537 40h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 42h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $304 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $812 43h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.50 · official $487.50 (match) · 84 history records