Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f78…f07b sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%76W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1
weather 1% $0
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +0.0% -9.5% 54% 52% -9.6%
≤30d 142 +0.0% -9.5% 54% 52% -9.6%
≤90d 142 +0.0% -9.5% 54% 52% -9.6%
all 142 +0.0% -9.5% 54% 52% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 52% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 46% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 41% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 38% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 +$2 +165%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Roberto Bautista Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 +$2 +236%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1 −$1 -56%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +74%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Buse 51¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1 18h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 37¢ $1 18h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 68¢ $1 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $1 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $1 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 31h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $1 40h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 42h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $1 42h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1 42h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 28¢ $1 43h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $1 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 46h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 46h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 46h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $1 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 2d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $3 2d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova SELL Darja Vidmanova 14¢ $0 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Alycia Parks 91¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 14¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 287 history records