Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f78…8461 other 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 835d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$246 (-4%) realized −$244 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%58W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$5
14 days+$3
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$157
other 36% −$85
sports 12% +$201
politics 7% −$212
crypto 0% −$5
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.6% -12.8% 34% 34% -10.3%
≤30d 78 -8.3% -17.0% 29% 28% -18.3%
≤90d 83 -11.5% -19.9% 29% 28% -20.4%
all 145 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 36% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 36% -13.7%
10% -25.3% 28% -21.9%
15% -32.5% 21% -29.5%
20% -39.1% 18% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

835d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses58 / 87
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)145 / 153
History coverage835d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $31 +$63 +206%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$13 +129%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +52%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$56 +550%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$24 +474%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$58 +566%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +131%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 56¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 32¢ $20 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 35¢ $51 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 32¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $30 6d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 6d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 6d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.21 · official $113.21 (match) · 339 history records