Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f73…16f0 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 3 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 3 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -12.1%
all 3 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -12.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 29 $101 −$3 -3%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $111 −$4 -4%
Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Jun 29 $151 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 76¢ $98 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Andrey Rublev 66¢ $107 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 80¢ $147 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 81¢ $151 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $101 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 67¢ $111 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records