Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f72…0831 other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$45
sports 23% −$30
politics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 5% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage137d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $580 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $501 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $299 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $408 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $168 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $353 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 08 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $388 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 07 $162 $0 +0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $328 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 4h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 5h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 17h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 18h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 24h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 29h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 36h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 40h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 43h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 44h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.73 · official $50.73 (match) · 1443 history records