Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f70…1969 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$225 (-19%) realized −$224 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$108
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$208
world 6% −$20
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 75% -13.5%
≤90d 13 -6.6% -15.5% 77% 46% -28.5%
all 18 -10.0% -18.6% 78% 33% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 33% -28.4%
10% -26.4% 28% -35.2%
15% -33.5% 17% -41.5%
20% -40.0% 6% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$102 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage169d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $101 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 09 $150 −$149 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $132 +$40 +31%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 30 $106 +$38 +36%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $127 +$48 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $160 −$157 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $37 +$8 +23%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 08 $14 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 08 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 08 $15 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 08 $52 +$30 +57%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 08 $86 +$16 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 17 $84 −$83 -98%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $27 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Jan 10 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.61 · official $100.61 (match) · 33 history records