Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3F 0x3f70…9ebe other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover

Total PnL +$65 (+8%) realized +$64 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate74%20W / 7L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day16.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+31.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+45.2%	+31.4%	74%	59%	+1.0%
≤30d	27	+45.2%	+31.4%	74%	59%	+1.0%
≤90d	27	+45.2%	+31.4%	74%	59%	+1.0%
all	27	+45.2%	+31.4%	74%	59%	+1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.4%	59%	+1.0%
10%	+18.8%	52%	-8.6%
15%	+7.3%	52%	-17.5%
20%	-3.2%	41%	-25.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +25% → late +64% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.93 per $1 lost it wins $4.93

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized+$64

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)74%

Wins / losses20 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)27 / 31

History coverage4d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day16.9

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+42%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	No	14¢	16¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$4	+41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$166	−$2	-1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$40	+$5	+13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$177	+$10	+6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$1	+$5	+494%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$10	+$20	+198%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$151	+$2	+1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$78	+$3	+4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$8	+$6	+70%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 19	$20	+$15	+74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	+$10	+49%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first?	Jun 19	$10	−$2	-17%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+68%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	Jun 19	$2	+$1	+52%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$13	+$1	+8%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$5	+$6	+124%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$8	−$3	-33%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$8	+$3	+39%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$2	+$3	+134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+57%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$5	+$8	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL	83¢	$14	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	97¢	$81	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	88¢	$61	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	39¢	$20	3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$85	4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	92¢	$45	6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	14¢	$1	9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN	BUY	34¢	$5	9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	81¢	$40	9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	58¢	$10	15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$96	18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	94¢	$91	18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	86¢	$91	18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$86	18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	20h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	91¢	$49	21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	SELL Yes	77¢	$49	21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	76¢	$49	21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	SELL Yes	66¢	$50	21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	68¢	$52	21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$32	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	90¢	$29	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	89¢	$49	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$49	23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	SELL Yes	89¢	$35	23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	53¢	$15	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.57 · official $12.64 · 72 history records