Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f6d…57c2 other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$1
other 25% −$19
politics 16% −$1
crypto 10% −$1
world 8% −$1
tech 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 5 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 143 -0.9% -10.3% 13% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage163d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $28 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 14 $28 −$3 -11%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $135 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $27 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $109 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $38 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $28 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $25 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $28 12d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $18 23d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $18 24d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $19 31d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 31d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 31d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $26 39d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $27 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 94¢ $23 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 95¢ $6 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 95¢ $29 126d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 126d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 126d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? SELL No 97¢ $27 126d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? BUY No 97¢ $27 126d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $24 126d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $24 126d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 95¢ $25 126d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 95¢ $25 126d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $29 126d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $29 126d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 126d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 126d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? SELL No 97¢ $28 126d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? BUY No 97¢ $28 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 95¢ $32 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 95¢ $32 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 516 history records