Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3f6b…9fe4 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$165 (+18%) realized +$304 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$229
other 11% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 75% +32.0%
≤30d 4 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 75% +32.0%
≤90d 4 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 75% +32.0%
all 4 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 75% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.6% 75% +32.0%
10% +26.3% 75% +19.4%
15% +14.1% 75% +7.8%
20% +2.9% 25% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$304
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 50¢ 3¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $202 +$18 +9%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $303 +$147 +48%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$47 +46%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $98 +$112 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 14m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $93 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $127 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 68¢ $101 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $98 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.32 · official $67.63 · 14 history records