Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f6b…276a crypto 1034 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%537W / 497L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day63.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$27
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 21% -14.5%
≤30d 504 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 28% -14.4%
≤90d 1034 -5.3% -14.4% 52% 41% -14.4%
all 1034 -5.3% -14.4% 52% 41% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 41% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 14% -22.6%
15% -30.0% 6% -30.1%
20% -36.9% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses537 / 497
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1034 / 1034
History coverage46d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1034 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 06 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $12 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3182 history records