Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f6a…a7bf other 1162 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,594 (+4%) realized +$14,941 · open +$653
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%643W / 492L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$2,505est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$15,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,567
7 days+$2,478
14 days+$1,557
30 days+$2,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$15,888
sports 50% −$2,048
world 1% +$903
crypto 0% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +29.0% +16.7% 58% 53% -5.4%
≤30d 291 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 54% -7.8%
≤90d 1135 +7.7% -2.6% 57% 55% -6.1%
all 1135 +7.7% -2.6% 57% 55% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 55% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 54% -15.1%
15% -20.4% 48% -23.3%
20% -28.2% 39% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$285 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$15,172
Realized+$14,941
Unrealized+$653
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses643 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,505
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1135 / 1162
History coverage72d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $1,386 $1,395 +$9 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $1,350 $1,377 +$27 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $1,044 $1,323 +$279 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $1,278 $1,287 +$9 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $882 $909 +$27 (+3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $846 $855 +$9 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $711 $717 +$6 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $492 $586 +$94 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $523 $561 +$38 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $390 $555 +$165 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $536 $554 +$17 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $372 $549 +$177 (+48%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $522 $507 −$15 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $350 $437 +$87 (+25%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $510 $429 −$81 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 71¢ $402 $426 +$24 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $474 $417 −$57 (-12%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 83¢ $390 $368 −$22 (-6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 54¢ $228 $321 +$93 (+41%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $246 $315 +$69 (+28%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $330 $302 −$28 (-9%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $296 $262 −$34 (-12%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $192 $183 −$9 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $354 $183 −$171 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $198 $165 −$33 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 263 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,251 +$439 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $877 +$923 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $895 +$905 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,278 +$522 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $351 +$412 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $787 −$774 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,502 −$1,494 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,440 +$360 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,903 −$103 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $666 +$1,134 +170%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $990 −$990 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $551 −$540 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $774 −$774 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $594 −$594 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $864 +$936 +108%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,332 +$468 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $684 +$1,116 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,728 +$72 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,134 +$666 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,796 +$4 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $166 +$1,634 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $690 +$340 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $374 +$422 +113%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,710 +$90 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $432 +$1,368 +317%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 15 $852 −$852 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,396 −$1,386 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $962 −$962 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,449 +$351 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,314 −$1,314 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,314 +$486 +37%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,307 −$1,296 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $914 −$900 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $914 −$900 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $787 +$1,013 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,314 +$486 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,404 +$396 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,512 +$288 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,807 −$7 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $589 +$129 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $769 +$1,031 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 +$14 +47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $306 +$1,494 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $756 +$1,044 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $738 +$1,062 +144%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,296 −$1,296 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $810 −$810 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,242 +$558 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $1,289 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $895 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $877 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $859 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $0 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $787 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1,502 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $160 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $92 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $40 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $616 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $1,278 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $94 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $895 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $1,057 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1,396 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $895 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1,440 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $990 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $551 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $450 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,171.96 · official $15,156.88 (match) · 2814 history records