Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f69…a3ae politics 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 688d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$18
other 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 96 -5.1% -14.2% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

688d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage688d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Dara Khosrowshahi be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Nov 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Worthy win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Pitts be the top Fantasy Tight End? Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
Will Mike Davis be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 1 Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the Bundesliga? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL Offensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to house arrest in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 16d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 38d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 39d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $57 64d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $4 65d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $53 65d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 80d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 80d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 92d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 92d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 93d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 93d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 93d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 93d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 96d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 96d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 96d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 103d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 104d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 109d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 110d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 113d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 130d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $56 143d
Will Dara Khosrowshahi be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? SELL No 100¢ $56 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 230 history records