Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3f67…a203 sports 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$26,007 (+18%) realized +$27,978 · open −$1,971
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%35W / 65L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1,409per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$833est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 232d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$30,159
other 31% −$14,852
crypto 0% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -17.4% -25.2% 31% 31% -27.9%
≤30d 65 +29.5% +17.2% 31% 29% -0.6%
≤90d 65 +29.5% +17.2% 31% 29% -0.6%
all 100 +14.2% +3.3% 35% 33% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 33% +4.6%
10% -6.6% 32% -5.4%
15% -15.6% 26% -14.5%
20% -23.9% 26% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,000 vs −$816 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$880
Realized+$27,978
Unrealized−$1,971
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses35 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$833
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 105
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,409
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 44¢ 11¢ $2,000 $488 −$1,512 (-76%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Over 7¢ 2¢ $500 $116 −$384 (-77%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $152 $99 −$53 (-35%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $204 +$368 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,144 +$2,790 +130%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $653 +$347 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,406 +$1,844 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $991 −$971 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,634 −$3,604 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $513 −$500 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $4,675 −$4,616 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $355 +$282 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,708 −$1,701 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,006 −$3,652 -91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,105 −$4,004 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$50 +62%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $652 −$639 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $976 −$956 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,017 −$385 -38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,982 +$3,011 +76%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $949 −$68 -7%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $100 −$42 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,310 −$1,012 -44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $109 −$107 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,361 −$1,838 -78%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,711 +$723 +27%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,105 +$1,890 +61%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,071 +$8,722 +815%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,109 −$1,080 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,148 −$1,120 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $399 −$388 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,881 −$1,855 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$187 +365%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $256 +$1,306 +510%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,142 −$1,140 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,321 +$2 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $922 −$900 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $435 −$427 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $140 −$136 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $90 −$87 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $495 −$495 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,126 −$1,100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 5¢ $339 8m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1,028 38m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,034 39m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 12¢ $1,515 52m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $2,533 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $459 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $2,144 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $1,933 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2,012 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 42¢ $1,435 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $2,144 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $323 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $36 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $284 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $209 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $1,037 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $31 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $1,251 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $391 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $84 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $152 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $204 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 31¢ $859 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $880.41 · official $876.71 (match) · 808 history records