Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f67…130a other 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$839 (-2%) realized −$843 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate88%191W / 26L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$39
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$93
world 23% −$143
politics 19% −$905
crypto 13% +$4
economics 7% +$8
weather 2% +$46
finance 2% +$5
sports 1% +$40
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +50.6% +36.3% 55% 27% -8.4%
≤30d 19 +31.8% +19.2% 63% 21% -6.2%
≤90d 44 +14.2% +3.3% 82% 9% -8.5%
all 217 +3.9% -6.0% 88% 5% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 5% -11.5%
10% -15.0% 2% -20.0%
15% -23.2% 2% -27.7%
20% -30.8% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$62 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$1,078
Realized−$843
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses191 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)217 / 226
History coverage365d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 96¢ 96¢ $258 $258 −$0 (-0%)
Will Evil Geniuses Academy Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 96¢ 96¢ $240 $241 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $220 $222 +$2 (+1%)
Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 97¢ 97¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 94¢ 97¢ $79 $82 +$3 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 -35%
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $37 $0 +1%
Will Chase Reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $23 +$36 +158%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 +240%
Will JP Hurlbert be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 +337%
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 -22%
Will Vincenzo Ceccarelli win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 25 $85 −$1 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 25 $218 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $268 +$2 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Tom Herman advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Stephanie Vargas advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 10 $54 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? Jun 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 27 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $161 +$4 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? May 16 $162 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 04 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by April 30, 2026? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? May 03 $15 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 23 $250 +$1 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 20 $168 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $1,221 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8? Apr 08 $253 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 08 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $242 $0 +0%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iran strike India in March? Apr 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in March? Apr 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $8 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March? Apr 05 $40 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 28 $371 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 26 $10 $0 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" this week? (March 22) Mar 25 $193 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris m Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 20? Mar 22 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $0 21m
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 30m
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 30m
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 93¢ $37 36m
Will Chase Reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 58m
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 SELL No 96¢ $20 59m
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 94¢ $79 1h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No $6 1h
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will JP Hurlbert be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Will JP Hurlbert be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 93¢ $24 1h
Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 91¢ $19 1h
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 91¢ $4 1h
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Chase Reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No $1 2h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No $1 2h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No $0 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 SELL No 96¢ $19 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 SELL No 96¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.61 · official $1,077.61 (match) · 783 history records