Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f66…53b5 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1
sports 13% +$7
other 9% −$1
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% +$24
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 19 -4.6% -13.7% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -4.6% -13.7% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 5% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 5% -7.3%
10% -14.2% 3% -16.1%
15% -22.5% 3% -24.2%
20% -30.1% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.02 per $1 lost it wins $5.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage484d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $79 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $6 −$4 -67%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $86 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $15 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 19 $41 +$1 +3%
Pacers vs. Hawks Mar 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Evansville vs. Murray State Mar 05 $40 $0 +0%
Fairfield vs. Siena Mar 05 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31? Mar 05 $7 +$24 +354%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 23 $3 $0 -8%
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Feb 22 $11 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $12 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $3 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $14 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $32 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $8 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $40 36h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $23 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $17 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $40 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $40 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $40 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $30 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records