Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f64…452a weather 510 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,810 (-12%) realized −$4,850 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate67%299W / 145L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% −$6,297
sports 48% −$4,126
other 2% −$927
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.0% -18.6% 0% 0% -16.1%
≤30d 233 -34.4% -40.6% 56% 3% -52.6%
≤90d 384 -21.8% -29.3% 66% 5% -48.9%
all 444 -19.0% -26.7% 67% 9% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 9% -36.3%
10% -33.7% 3% -42.4%
15% -40.1% 2% -47.9%
20% -46.0% 1% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$93 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized−$4,850
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses299 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)444 / 510
History coverage138d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 28? No 96¢ 100¢ $255 $264 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? No 95¢ 100¢ $250 $263 +$13 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? No 94¢ 100¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28? No 97¢ 99¢ $154 $158 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -15%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 26 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-14? Jun 17 $455 −$909 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 17 $135 −$259 -192%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 31? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -199%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -199%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? Jun 17 $20 −$30 -148%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -198%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 17 $80 −$160 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? Jun 17 $80 −$160 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 17 $201 −$266 -133%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? Jun 17 $115 −$230 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 7? Jun 17 $201 −$400 -199%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $752 −$752 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $800 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $161 −$161 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Elina Nepliy vs Carlota Martinez Cirez Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Verena Meliss Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Paris FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Paris FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $373 −$373 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $80 −$15 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 7? Jun 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 7? Jun 06 $160 −$160 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $154 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $250 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $251 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $150 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $47 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $150 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $99 37h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $65 38h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 45¢ $4 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 48¢ $8 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 50¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $80 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 92¢ $251 11d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 92¢ $251 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.37 · official $898.47 (match) · 2861 history records