Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f60…68d8 politics 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$860 (+1%) realized +$859 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$18
30 days+$1,711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$61
other 37% +$1,407
sports 6% −$493
economics 4% +$2
world 4% −$10
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 +8.0% -2.3% 14% 5% -4.3%
≤90d 100 -13.4% -21.6% 9% 5% -8.8%
all 130 -8.6% -17.3% 13% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 8% -8.8%
10% -25.3% 7% -17.5%
15% -32.5% 5% -25.5%
20% -39.1% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,101) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$11 · ×11.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$934
Realized+$859
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage123d
Avg bet$787
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $719 $720 +$1 (+0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $215 $214 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,023 +$2 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,603 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,393 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,201 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $673 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $929 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,924 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 04 $778 +$2 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $279 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,488 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,588 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 21 $1,025 +$1,745 +170%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,207 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,471 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,272 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $624 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,959 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,449 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $2,527 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,903 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,292 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,476 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,400 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $426 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $432 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $430 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $719 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $857 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $672 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $673 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $928 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $929 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $987 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $988 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 18d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $279 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $279 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,017 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,004 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $934.22 · official $934.22 (match) · 452 history records