Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f5f…554f other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-20%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$74
crypto 27% −$90
sports 7% +$5
finance 2% $0
weather 2% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.7% +23.7% 75% 75% +24.2%
≤30d 4 +36.7% +23.7% 75% 75% +24.2%
≤90d 51 -9.9% -18.5% 39% 37% -29.0%
all 65 -8.7% -17.4% 35% 32% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 32% -30.9%
10% -25.3% 29% -37.5%
15% -32.5% 28% -43.5%
20% -39.1% 23% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage91d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 02 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 02 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 02 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 02 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 01 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$5 +98%
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) Apr 01 $4 $0 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 31 $8 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $9 $0 -0%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $8 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $9 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Mar 31 $2 +$3 +103%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Mar 31 $2 +$3 +111%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $6 −$1 -19%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $4 +$1 +33%
Flames vs. Avalanche Mar 31 $25 $0 -1%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Mar 29 $25 $0 +1%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-22? Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 20 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 20? Mar 20 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 21? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 22h
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 66d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 68d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $53 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $19 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $20 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 77d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 77d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $7 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.62 · official $99.62 (match) · 142 history records