Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f5e…29be world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+5%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% +$47
politics 25% +$1
sports 18% +$16
other 15% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -3.3% -12.5% 23% 0% -10.7%
all 32 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 6% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 6% -4.5%
10% -12.3% 6% -13.6%
15% -20.8% 6% -22.0%
20% -28.6% 6% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.65 per $1 lost it wins $8.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage483d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 -1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $36 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 10 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 09 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $4 $0 +7%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 06 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 26 $84 +$1 +1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? Mar 21 $34 +$50 +150%
Baylor vs. TCU Mar 04 $16 $0 +3%
Lindenwood vs. Tennessee Tech Mar 04 $16 +$16 +100%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 01 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $1 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $1 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $2 27h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 9¢ $4 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $10 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 3d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $32 3d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $10 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $10 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $13 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $32 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $12 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $13 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records