Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f5b…a8b6 crypto 604 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$315 (-6%) realized −$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%365W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$174
14 days−$174
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$349
sports 1% −$47
other 1% −$14
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$2
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -22.4% -29.8% 23% 12% -33.4%
≤30d 598 -5.8% -14.8% 61% 58% -17.2%
≤90d 598 -5.8% -14.8% 61% 58% -17.2%
all 598 -5.8% -14.8% 61% 58% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 58% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 50% -25.1%
15% -30.4% 32% -32.4%
20% -37.2% 2% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses365 / 233
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)598 / 604
History coverage28d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 598 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 60¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $5 −$1 -30%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Yan Valery: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Rani Khedira: 2+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$23 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$49 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Michigan Wolverines win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$6 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 89¢ $5 2m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? SELL No 87¢ $5 7m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 8m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 14m
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 19m
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 46m
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 47m
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 48m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? SELL No 80¢ $4 55m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 76¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 69¢ $4 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 89¢ $5 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 89¢ $5 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 96¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 14h
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? SELL Over 46¢ $2 14h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 89¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.84 · official $23.84 (match) · 2024 history records