Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3f5a…5b2e politics 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$11
politics 33% −$13
sports 18% +$11
crypto 3% −$3
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 115 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage129d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 28 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $214 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $552 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $454 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $265 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $230 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $257 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $221 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $283 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $315 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $347 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $155 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 15d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $200 23d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $200 23d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $236 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $236 25d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $194 26d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $194 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $214 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 28d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 28d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $199 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 31d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $198 33d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $198 33d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $245 33d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $245 34d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $254 34d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $254 35d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 35d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 36d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 343 history records