Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f57…7298 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$197 (-8%) realized −$198 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$292
crypto 24% +$1
other 9% +$95
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +22.6% +10.9% 100% 50% +7.2%
all 12 +8.3% -2.0% 83% 42% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 42% -17.0%
10% -11.4% 42% -24.9%
15% -19.9% 42% -32.2%
20% -27.8% 17% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$372 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage227d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $105 $0 +0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 12 $72 +$33 +45%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Jan 08 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jan 08 $316 +$129 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $315 +$1 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Dec 15 $224 +$91 +41%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-08? Dec 09 $130 +$94 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Nov 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5 Nov 15 $200 +$200 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $106 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $105 38d
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $72 78d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $73 130d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $72 156d
Will US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $445 172d
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $316 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $315 189d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $224 197d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-08? BUY Yes 58¢ $130 203d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $129 214d
Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $300 223d
Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5 BUY Over 50¢ $200 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.62 · official $105.62 (match) · 24 history records