Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f54…4b8d crypto 839 markets active 5d ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,102 (-10%) realized −$1,102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%381W / 458L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$41
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,197
politics 2% −$28
finance 0% −$38
other 0% −$22
world 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -24.6% -31.8% 51% 42% -27.7%
≤30d 121 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 40% -25.6%
≤90d 488 -12.0% -20.3% 43% 41% -16.6%
all 839 -9.2% -17.9% 45% 42% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -20.7%
10% -25.7% 38% -28.3%
15% -32.9% 34% -35.2%
20% -39.5% 28% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses381 / 458
Open positions0
Markets (closed)839 / 839
History coverage153d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 839 Trades
no open positions (412 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$7 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1848 history records