Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f4b…f574
other · 618 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$704 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$146 · open −$52
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,564
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses323 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions45
Markets (closed)572 / 618
History coverage191d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 45 History 572 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$124
14 days+$114
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $1,613 $1,660 +$47 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 77¢ $1,557 $1,579 +$22 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $501 $481 −$20 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $335 $278 −$57 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 53¢ $28 $53 +$25 (+89%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 10¢ 39¢ $12 $50 +$37 (+302%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-9%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+20%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 76¢ $21 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $15 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 57¢ 58¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 87¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 81¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 64¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $1,863 +$2 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $28 +$9 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +189%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $27 $0 -2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 +$72 +191%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $178 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $7 +$4 +48%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $23 +$11 +47%
Will Gianluca Tittarelli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election? Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$17 +237%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $23 −$9 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat? Jun 06 $2 $0 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 04 $33 −$9 -27%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $25 +$17 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $80 +$33 +41%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Globalization" be said during the next episode of the All-In Pod Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Insurance" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Competent" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 27, 2026? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $179 −$44 -25%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $11 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $159 +$27 +17%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $446 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $2,200 +$4 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $6,417 +$6 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +104%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $12 +$2 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $72 −$14 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $10 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $6 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $355 −$2 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $24 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $22 −$1 -7%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 29 $19 +$11 +57%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 27, 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% −$61
politics 16% +$164
other 13% −$355
finance 10% +$369
sports 5% −$13
crypto 1% −$9
tech 1% +$16
culture 0% −$21
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 21¢ $3 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $9 48m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 36¢ $6 3h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 36¢ $3 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 8h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 9h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 9h
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 70¢ $3 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 42¢ $4 11h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 12h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $3 13h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 16h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 80¢ $4 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 40¢ $11 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $150 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 88¢ $8 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $100 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 35h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +43.5% +29.9% 89% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 81 +6.4% -3.7% 67% 31% -7.4%
≤90d 185 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 30% -8.6%
all 572 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 34% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 34% -9.1%
10% -16.4% 27% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 22% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,564.14 · official $4,575.15 (match) · 3500 history records