Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f4a…a5a5 weather 762 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,070 (+2%) realized +$4,070 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%730W / 32L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day56.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$552
14 days+$979
30 days+$2,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +9.3% -1.1% 99% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 297 +5.2% -4.8% 98% 10% -7.7%
≤90d 762 +6.3% -3.8% 96% 8% -7.9%
all 762 +6.3% -3.8% 96% 8% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 8% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -16.8%
15% -21.4% 4% -24.8%
20% -29.1% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×28.52 per $1 lost it wins $28.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,070
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses730 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)762 / 762
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$314
Trades / day56.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 762 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 30? Jun 29 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? Jun 29 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? Jun 29 $1,595 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 29? Jun 29 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? Jun 29 $898 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 29? Jun 29 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 30? Jun 29 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 28 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? Jun 28 $688 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? Jun 28 $15 +$49 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28? Jun 28 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 28 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? Jun 28 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $373 +$27 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? Jun 28 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 28 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 29? Jun 28 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $197 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $378 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $630 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1,594 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $372 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 27 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 27? Jun 27 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1,314 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $55 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1,323 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 27 $797 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 27 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $66 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $134 +$18 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $791 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $362 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $46 +$114 +250%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1,976 +$22 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $203 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $18 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $398 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $1,986 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $1,206 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $393 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $799 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $75 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $598 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records