trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -10.3% | -18.9% | 0% | 0% | -13.3% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 50% | 12% | -11.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 50% | 12% | -11.4% |
| all | 19 | -8.1% | -16.8% | 58% | 5% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.8% | 5% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -24.8% | 0% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -32.1% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -38.7% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $33 | $33 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | -21% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 27 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $6 | +$1 | +13% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $10 | −$4 | -41% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $72 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 21 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Jun 24 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Montenegro finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 16 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 15 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Apr 03 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| US lifts Russia sanctions before April? | Mar 28 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 24 | $4 | $0 | -3% |