Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f48…f8c8 crypto 1002 markets active 0h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$122 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%358W / 638L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$255
14 days+$110
30 days−$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$653
other 8% −$289
sports 2% −$137
world 0% +$71
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +10.6% +0.1% 40% 39% -0.3%
≤30d 352 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 38% -15.5%
≤90d 739 -18.3% -26.0% 36% 34% -15.4%
all 996 -13.4% -21.7% 36% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 34% -12.3%
10% -29.1% 31% -20.7%
15% -36.0% 28% -28.4%
20% -42.3% 24% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses358 / 638
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)996 / 1002
History coverage173d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 996 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 46¢ 32¢ $45 $32 −$13 (-29%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 41¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $47 $1 −$46 (-98%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 429 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$36 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$9 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $81 +$119 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$59 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$61 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$7 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$20 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $133 −$106 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$13 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$81 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$245 +3276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$42 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$200 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$75 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$9 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $47 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $62 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.30 · official $37.30 (match) · 2244 history records